Terron Armstead
T, Ark-Pine Bluff · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #75 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #52 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#75). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ark-Pine Bluff: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 306 lbs: faster than 100% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 135 of ~196 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2024 (~69%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 135 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 67 |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 306 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.62 s |
| Shuttle | 4.72 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #52 overall (#7 T) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 72 | Brian Winters | redraft #50 |
| 73 | Mike Glennon | redraft #121 |
| 74 | Terrance Williams | redraft #56 |
| 76 | Keenan Allen | redraft #5 |
| 77 | Dallas Thomas | redraft #107 |
| 78 | Marquise Goodwin | redraft #67 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.