Keenan Allen
WR, California · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #76 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #38 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #76: teams let him slide 38 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 206 lbs: faster than 12% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 176 of ~213 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~83%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 176 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 80 |
| Passing | 1/5, 49 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 18 att, 113 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 1081 rec, 12,278 yds, 71 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 206 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.6" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #38 overall (#5 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 73 | Mike Glennon | redraft #121 |
| 74 | Terrance Williams | redraft #56 |
| 75 | Terron Armstead | redraft #6 |
| 77 | Dallas Thomas | redraft #107 |
| 78 | Marquise Goodwin | redraft #67 |
| 79 | Markus Wheaton | redraft #104 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.