Terrance Williams
WR, Baylor · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2018 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#74). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 29% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 19 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 232 rec, 3,377 yds, 20 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.2" / 8.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#8 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 71 | T.J. McDonald | redraft #65 |
| 72 | Brian Winters | redraft #50 |
| 73 | Mike Glennon | redraft #121 |
| 75 | Terron Armstead | redraft #6 |
| 76 | Keenan Allen | redraft #5 |
| 77 | Dallas Thomas | redraft #107 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.