T.J. Jones
WR, Notre Dame · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #189 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #169 (#25 at his position), close to where he went (#189). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 188 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2019 (~47%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 67 rec, 852 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 188 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.82 s |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #169 overall (#25 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 186 | Lache Seastrunk | redraft #237 |
| 187 | Bennett Jackson | redraft #208 |
| 188 | E.J. Gaines | redraft #104 |
| 190 | Matt Hazel | redraft #211 |
| 191 | Pat O'Donnell | redraft #84 |
| 192 | Jordan Zumwalt | redraft #238 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.