Stephon Gilmore
DB, South Carolina · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #10 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 180 of ~212 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2024 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 190 lbs: faster than 87% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 180 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 75 |
| Defense | 521 tackles, 1 sacks, 32 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 190 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 6.61 s |
| Shuttle | 3.94 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#2 DB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 7 | Mark Barron | redraft #22 |
| 8 | Ryan Tannehill | redraft #8 |
| 9 | Luke Kuechly | redraft #7 |
| 11 | Dontari Poe | redraft #24 |
| 12 | Fletcher Cox | redraft #5 |
| 13 | Michael Floyd | redraft #61 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.