Luke Kuechly
LB, Boston Col. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #9 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 118 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2019 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#9).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boston Col.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 74% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 118 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 7 |
| First-team All-Pro | 5 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 91 |
| Defense | 690 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 18 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 6.92 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#1 LB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 6 | Morris Claiborne | redraft #68 |
| 7 | Mark Barron | redraft #22 |
| 8 | Ryan Tannehill | redraft #8 |
| 10 | Stephon Gilmore | redraft #10 |
| 11 | Dontari Poe | redraft #24 |
| 12 | Fletcher Cox | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.