Shelley Smith
G, Colorado St. · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #187 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Colorado St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.03 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 86% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 36 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2014 (~45%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 36 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.03 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.67 s |
| Shuttle | 4.71 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 184 | Adrian Tracy | redraft #193 |
| 185 | Anthony McCoy | redraft #149 |
| 186 | Clifton Geathers | redraft #165 |
| 188 | Jonathan Dwyer | redraft #130 |
| 189 | Eugene Sims | redraft #87 |
| 190 | Travis Goethel | redraft #194 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.