Jonathan Dwyer
RB, Georgia Tech · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #188 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Georgia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 17% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2014 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Rushing | 246 att, 1,022 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 29 rec, 184 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.56 s |
| Shuttle | 4.67 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 8.6" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 185 | Anthony McCoy | redraft #149 |
| 186 | Clifton Geathers | redraft #165 |
| 187 | Shelley Smith | redraft #139 |
| 189 | Eugene Sims | redraft #87 |
| 190 | Travis Goethel | redraft #194 |
| 191 | Dezmon Briscoe | redraft #158 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.