Rufus Alexander
LB, Oklahoma · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #176 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2008 (~3%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #122 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #176: teams let him slide 54 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 13% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 1 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.3 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #122 overall (#11 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 173 | Michael Coe | redraft #177 |
| 174 | Troy Smith | redraft #140 |
| 175 | Oren O'Neal | redraft #203 |
| 177 | Jacob Bender | redraft #222 |
| 178 | Nick Folk | redraft #37 |
| 179 | H.B. Blades | redraft #120 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.