H.B. Blades
LB, Pittsburgh · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #179 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #127 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #179: teams let him slide 52 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2010 (~100%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 236 lbs: faster than 38% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 64 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Defense | 99 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 236 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #127 overall (#5 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 176 | Rufus Alexander | redraft #226 |
| 177 | Jacob Bender | redraft #222 |
| 178 | Nick Folk | redraft #37 |
| 180 | Justin Rogers | redraft #183 |
| 181 | Reagan Maui'a | redraft #201 |
| 182 | Adam Hayward | redraft #106 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.