Troy Smith
QB, Ohio St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #174 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #104 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #174: teams let him slide 70 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.72 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 69% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2010 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Passing | 121/234, 1,734 yds, 8 TD, 5 INT |
| Rushing | 52 att, 230 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 36 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #104 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 171 | Clint Oldenburg | redraft #221 |
| 172 | Legedu Naanee | redraft #99 |
| 173 | Michael Coe | redraft #177 |
| 175 | Oren O'Neal | redraft #203 |
| 176 | Rufus Alexander | redraft #226 |
| 177 | Jacob Bender | redraft #222 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.