Roc Carmichael
DB, Virginia Tech · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #127 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~40%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #149 (#22 at his position), close to where he went (#127).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 192 lbs: faster than 80% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Defense | 22 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 192 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.69 s |
| Shuttle | 4.06 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #149 overall (#22 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 124 | Owen Marecic | redraft #208 |
| 125 | Taiwan Jones | redraft #164 |
| 126 | Bilal Powell | redraft #58 |
| 128 | Cortez Allen | redraft #106 |
| 129 | Julius Thomas | redraft #72 |
| 130 | Jamie Harper | redraft #188 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.