Julius Thomas
TE, Portland St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #129 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #184 (#9 at his position); he went #129, 55 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Portland St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 246 lbs: faster than 73% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 71 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2017 (~63%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 71 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Receiving | 226 rec, 2,406 yds, 36 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 246 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #184 overall (#9 TE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 126 | Bilal Powell | redraft #58 |
| 127 | Roc Carmichael | redraft #185 |
| 128 | Cortez Allen | redraft #106 |
| 130 | Jamie Harper | redraft #188 |
| 131 | Davon House | redraft #81 |
| 132 | Kealoha Pilares | redraft #191 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.