Jamie Harper
RB, Clemson · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #130 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #277 (#25 at his position); he went #130, 147 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 50% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 23 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2012 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 23 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 36 att, 74 yds, 4 TD |
| Receiving | 5 rec, 40 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.16 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.29" / 8.699" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #277 overall (#25 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 127 | Roc Carmichael | redraft #185 |
| 128 | Cortez Allen | redraft #106 |
| 129 | Julius Thomas | redraft #72 |
| 131 | Davon House | redraft #81 |
| 132 | Kealoha Pilares | redraft #191 |
| 133 | Johnny White | redraft #209 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.