Richard Marshall
DB, Fresno St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #58 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 124 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2014 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #36 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#58).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 77% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 124 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| Defense | 526 tackles, 7 sacks, 18 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| 3-cone | 6.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #36 overall (#8 DB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 55 | Andrew Whitworth | redraft #3 |
| 56 | Chris Chester | redraft #22 |
| 57 | Devin Hester | redraft #38 |
| 59 | Jeremy Trueblood | redraft #60 |
| 60 | Maurice Jones-Drew | redraft #9 |
| 61 | Tony Scheffler | redraft #83 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.