Devin Hester
DB, Miami (FL) · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #57 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 156 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2016 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #83 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#57). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 190 lbs: faster than 80% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 156 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 47 |
| Rushing | 36 att, 116 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 255 rec, 3,311 yds, 16 TD |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 190 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #83 overall (#1 DB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 54 | Bernard Pollard | redraft #64 |
| 55 | Andrew Whitworth | redraft #3 |
| 56 | Chris Chester | redraft #22 |
| 58 | Richard Marshall | redraft #70 |
| 59 | Jeremy Trueblood | redraft #60 |
| 60 | Maurice Jones-Drew | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.