Chris Chester
G, Oklahoma · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #56 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 169 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2016 (~96%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #70 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#56). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 303 lbs: faster than 99% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 169 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 59 |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 303 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.31 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #70 overall (#2 G) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 53 | Anthony Fasano | redraft #88 |
| 54 | Bernard Pollard | redraft #64 |
| 55 | Andrew Whitworth | redraft #3 |
| 57 | Devin Hester | redraft #38 |
| 58 | Richard Marshall | redraft #70 |
| 59 | Jeremy Trueblood | redraft #60 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.