Rashaad Penny
RB, San Diego St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #27 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~99 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2023 (~45%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #47 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.0 |
| Rushing | 348 att, 1,951 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 28 rec, 227 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #47 overall (#5 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 24 | D.J. Moore | redraft #11 |
| 25 | Hayden Hurst | redraft #105 |
| 26 | Calvin Ridley | redraft #33 |
| 28 | Terrell Edmunds | redraft #72 |
| 29 | Taven Bryan | redraft #84 |
| 30 | Mike Hughes | redraft #94 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.