Hayden Hurst
TE, South Carolina · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #25 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #28 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 67% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 88 of ~116 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2024 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 88 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 17.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 203 rec, 1,975 yds, 15 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.19 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.75" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #28 overall (#1 TE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 22 | Rashaan Evans | redraft #58 |
| 23 | Isaiah Wynn | redraft #82 |
| 24 | D.J. Moore | redraft #11 |
| 26 | Calvin Ridley | redraft #33 |
| 27 | Rashaad Penny | redraft #121 |
| 28 | Terrell Edmunds | redraft #72 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.