Randy Starks
DT, Maryland · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #71 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #71: teams let him slide 39 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 186 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2015 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- School
Maryland: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.08 40-yard dash at 314 lbs: faster than 22% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 186 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 61 |
| Defense | 300 tackles, 42 sacks, 4 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 314 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.08 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#4 DT) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 68 | Ben Hartsock | redraft #173 |
| 69 | Gilbert Gardner | redraft #121 |
| 70 | Joey Thomas | redraft #160 |
| 72 | Donnell Washington | redraft #228 |
| 73 | Keith Smith | redraft #132 |
| 74 | Tim Anderson | redraft #127 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.