Keith Smith
DB, McNeese St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #70 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#73).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
McNeese St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 52% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 74 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2009 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2009.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 74 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Defense | 130 tackles, 1 sacks, 4 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #70 overall (#11 DB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 70 | Joey Thomas | redraft #160 |
| 71 | Randy Starks | redraft #16 |
| 72 | Donnell Washington | redraft #228 |
| 74 | Tim Anderson | redraft #127 |
| 75 | Max Starks | redraft #30 |
| 76 | Derrick Strait | redraft #142 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.