Joey Thomas
DB, Montana St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #70 (GNB)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 31 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~39%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #61 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#70).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Montana St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 69% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 31 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Defense | 34 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.82 s |
| Shuttle | 3.88 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #61 overall (#9 DB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 67 | Stuart Schweigert | redraft #91 |
| 68 | Ben Hartsock | redraft #173 |
| 69 | Gilbert Gardner | redraft #121 |
| 71 | Randy Starks | redraft #16 |
| 72 | Donnell Washington | redraft #228 |
| 73 | Keith Smith | redraft #132 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.