Phillip Thomas
DB, Fresno St. · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #119 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2014 (~25%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#119).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 3% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Defense | 19 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#7 DB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 116 | Earl Watford | redraft #94 |
| 117 | Khaseem Greene | redraft #174 |
| 118 | Sean Porter | redraft #221 |
| 120 | Gerald Hodges | redraft #82 |
| 121 | Khaled Holmes | redraft #165 |
| 122 | J.C. Tretter | redraft #40 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.