Earl Watford
G, James Madison · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #116 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #160 (#10 at his position); he went #116, 44 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
James Madison: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 82% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 71 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2019 (~63%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 71 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.77 s |
| Shuttle | 5 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.6" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #160 overall (#10 G) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 113 | Barrett Jones | redraft #210 |
| 114 | B.W. Webb | redraft #99 |
| 115 | Landry Jones | redraft #163 |
| 117 | Khaseem Greene | redraft #174 |
| 118 | Sean Porter | redraft #221 |
| 119 | Phillip Thomas | redraft #185 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.