J.C. Tretter
T, Cornell · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #122 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #181 (#13 at his position); he went #122, 59 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cornell: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.09 40-yard dash at 307 lbs: faster than 76% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~145 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2021 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 111 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 37 |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 307 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.09 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.48 s |
| Shuttle | 4.69 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.3" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #181 overall (#13 T) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 119 | Phillip Thomas | redraft #185 |
| 120 | Gerald Hodges | redraft #82 |
| 121 | Khaled Holmes | redraft #165 |
| 123 | Chris Harper | redraft #217 |
| 124 | Trevardo Williams | redraft #222 |
| 125 | Johnathan Franklin | redraft #198 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.