Chris Harper
WR, Kansas St. · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #123 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2013 (~25%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #147 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#123).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 20% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.89 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.6" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #147 overall (#16 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 120 | Gerald Hodges | redraft #82 |
| 121 | Khaled Holmes | redraft #165 |
| 122 | J.C. Tretter | redraft #40 |
| 124 | Trevardo Williams | redraft #222 |
| 125 | Johnathan Franklin | redraft #198 |
| 126 | William Gholston | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.