Patrick Mahomes
QB, Texas Tech · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #10 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #44 (#3 at his position); he went #10, 34 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 52% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 125 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 131 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 115 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 117.7 |
| Passing | 3198/4831, 37,248 yds, 276 TD, 88 INT |
| Rushing | 513 att, 2,722 yds, 20 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, -2 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.80 s |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #44 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 7 | Mike Williams | redraft #41 |
| 8 | Christian McCaffrey | redraft #4 |
| 9 | John Ross | redraft #143 |
| 11 | Marshon Lattimore | redraft #33 |
| 12 | Deshaun Watson | redraft #13 |
| 13 | Haason Reddick | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.