Deshaun Watson
QB, Clemson · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #12 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #28 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 78% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 72 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~48%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 79 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 58 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 61.1 |
| Passing | 1638/2479, 19,078 yds, 130 TD, 50 INT |
| Rushing | 445 att, 2,338 yds, 20 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 6 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #28 overall (#2 QB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 9 | John Ross | redraft #143 |
| 10 | Patrick Mahomes | redraft #1 |
| 11 | Marshon Lattimore | redraft #33 |
| 13 | Haason Reddick | redraft #28 |
| 14 | Derek Barnett | redraft #64 |
| 15 | Malik Hooker | redraft #67 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.