Mike Williams
WR, Clemson · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #7 (LAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #12 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 106 of ~132 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2024 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 106 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 38 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 38.0 |
| Rushing | 10 att, 34 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 330 rec, 5,104 yds, 32 TD |
| Defense | 0 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 218 lbs |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #12 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 4 | Leonard Fournette | redraft #42 |
| 5 | Corey Davis | redraft #55 |
| 6 | Jamal Adams | redraft #27 |
| 8 | Christian McCaffrey | redraft #4 |
| 9 | John Ross | redraft #143 |
| 10 | Patrick Mahomes | redraft #1 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.