Nick Mangold
C, Ohio St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #29 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 164 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2016 (~93%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#29). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.05 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 83% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 164 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 7 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 73 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -3 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.05 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 104" |
| 3-cone | 7.47 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#1 C) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 26 | John McCargo | redraft #162 |
| 27 | DeAngelo Williams | redraft #19 |
| 28 | Marcedes Lewis | redraft #59 |
| 30 | Joseph Addai | redraft #33 |
| 31 | Kelly Jennings | redraft #98 |
| 32 | Mathias Kiwanuka | redraft #55 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.