Marcedes Lewis
TE, UCLA · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #28 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#28).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at 261 lbs: faster than 26% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 290 of ~325 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2025 (~89%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 290 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 15 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 35 |
| Receiving | 437 rec, 5,115 yds, 40 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 261 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.80 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.24 s |
| Shuttle | 4.82 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#2 TE) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 25 | Santonio Holmes | redraft #39 |
| 26 | John McCargo | redraft #162 |
| 27 | DeAngelo Williams | redraft #19 |
| 29 | Nick Mangold | redraft #10 |
| 30 | Joseph Addai | redraft #33 |
| 31 | Kelly Jennings | redraft #98 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.