Joseph Addai
RB, LSU · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #30 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #47 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 214 lbs: faster than 87% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 78 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2011 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 78 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 50 |
| Passing | 1/1, 22 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1095 att, 4,453 yds, 39 TD |
| Receiving | 191 rec, 1,448 yds, 9 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 214 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #47 overall (#5 RB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 27 | DeAngelo Williams | redraft #19 |
| 28 | Marcedes Lewis | redraft #59 |
| 29 | Nick Mangold | redraft #10 |
| 31 | Kelly Jennings | redraft #98 |
| 32 | Mathias Kiwanuka | redraft #55 |
| 33 | DeMeco Ryans | redraft #24 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.