Nick Chubb
RB, Georgia · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #35 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #34 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#35). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 227 lbs: faster than 53% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~75%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 49.0 |
| Rushing | 1462 att, 7,349 yds, 54 TD |
| Receiving | 141 rec, 1,109 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 227 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #34 overall (#3 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 32 | Lamar Jackson | redraft #2 |
| 33 | Austin Corbett | redraft #69 |
| 34 | Will Hernandez | redraft #46 |
| 36 | Shaquille Leonard | redraft #12 |
| 37 | Braden Smith | redraft #26 |
| 38 | Ronald Jones II | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.