Lamar Jackson
QB, Louisville · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #32 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 116 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~87%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#32). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 120 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 110 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 111.6 |
| Passing | 1938/2984, 23,575 yds, 193 TD, 57 INT |
| Rushing | 1100 att, 6,666 yds, 36 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 216 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 33.13" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 29 | Taven Bryan | redraft #84 |
| 30 | Mike Hughes | redraft #94 |
| 31 | Sony Michel | redraft #86 |
| 33 | Austin Corbett | redraft #69 |
| 34 | Will Hernandez | redraft #46 |
| 35 | Nick Chubb | redraft #22 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.