Braden Smith
G, Auburn · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #37 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#37). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.22 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 48% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 107 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~80%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 107 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 45 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 45.2 |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.22 s |
| Bench press | 35 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| Shuttle | 4.77 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#6 G) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 34 | Will Hernandez | redraft #46 |
| 35 | Nick Chubb | redraft #22 |
| 36 | Shaquille Leonard | redraft #12 |
| 38 | Ronald Jones II | redraft #100 |
| 39 | James Daniels | redraft #70 |
| 40 | Courtland Sutton | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.