Courtland Sutton
WR, SMU · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #40 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 114 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~86%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #44 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#40). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
SMU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 218 lbs: faster than 22% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 121 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 45 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 47.4 |
| Passing | 4/4, 84 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 5 att, 21 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 466 rec, 6,480 yds, 40 TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 218 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.57 s |
| Shuttle | 4.11 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.38" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #44 overall (#4 WR) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 37 | Braden Smith | redraft #26 |
| 38 | Ronald Jones II | redraft #100 |
| 39 | James Daniels | redraft #70 |
| 41 | Harold Landry | redraft #28 |
| 42 | Mike Gesicki | redraft #68 |
| 43 | Kerryon Johnson | redraft #135 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.