Kerryon Johnson
RB, Auburn · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #43 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #79 (#7 at his position); he went #43, 36 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~65 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2021 (~54%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 35 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.0 |
| Rushing | 283 att, 1,225 yds, 8 TD |
| Receiving | 61 rec, 527 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 213 lbs |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.29 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #79 overall (#7 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 40 | Courtland Sutton | redraft #23 |
| 41 | Harold Landry | redraft #28 |
| 42 | Mike Gesicki | redraft #68 |
| 44 | Dante Pettis | redraft #140 |
| 45 | Josh Jackson | redraft #151 |
| 46 | Breeland Speaks | redraft #193 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.