Nate Sudfeld
QB, Indiana · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #187 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~114 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2022 (~5%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #160 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#187).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Indiana: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.02 40-yard dash at 234 lbs: faster than 9% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 6 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Passing | 25/37, 188 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 10 att, 28 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 234 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.02 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| Arm / hand | 33.75" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #160 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 184 | Jerell Adams | redraft #181 |
| 185 | DeAndre Houston-Carson | redraft #118 |
| 186 | Jakeem Grant | redraft #102 |
| 188 | David Morgan | redraft #201 |
| 189 | Anthony Brown | redraft #80 |
| 190 | Josh Forrest | redraft #188 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.