DeAndre Houston-Carson
S, William & Mary · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #185 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #185: teams let him slide 78 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
William & Mary: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 27% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 107 of ~131 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2023 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 107 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.0 |
| Defense | 118 tackles, 0 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.88" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#10 S) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 182 | Keenan Reynolds | redraft #228 |
| 183 | Devante Bond | redraft #165 |
| 184 | Jerell Adams | redraft #181 |
| 186 | Jakeem Grant | redraft #102 |
| 187 | Nate Sudfeld | redraft #214 |
| 188 | David Morgan | redraft #201 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.