Anthony Brown
CB, Purdue · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #189 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #295 (#34 at his position); he went #189, 106 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Purdue: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 192 lbs: faster than 96% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 96 of ~131 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2023 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 96 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 23.0 |
| Defense | 260 tackles, 4 sacks, 9 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 192 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.33 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 8.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #295 overall (#34 CB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 186 | Jakeem Grant | redraft #102 |
| 187 | Nate Sudfeld | redraft #214 |
| 188 | David Morgan | redraft #201 |
| 190 | Josh Forrest | redraft #188 |
| 191 | Jake Rudock | redraft #224 |
| 192 | Kolby Listenbee | redraft #240 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.