Mike Williams
WR, Syracuse · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #101 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Syracuse: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 25% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2014 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 63 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| Passing | 1/1, 28 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 223 rec, 3,089 yds, 26 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 8 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 98 | Mike Johnson | redraft #174 |
| 99 | Mardy Gilyard | redraft #188 |
| 100 | Everson Griffen | redraft #16 |
| 102 | Darryl Sharpton | redraft #116 |
| 103 | Perry Riley | redraft #56 |
| 104 | Alterraun Verner | redraft #50 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.