Perry Riley
LB, LSU · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #103 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #84 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#103). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 239 lbs: faster than 38% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 90 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2016 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 90 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| Defense | 308 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 239 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #84 overall (#10 LB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 100 | Everson Griffen | redraft #16 |
| 101 | Mike Williams | redraft #67 |
| 102 | Darryl Sharpton | redraft #116 |
| 104 | Alterraun Verner | redraft #50 |
| 105 | Trevard Lindley | redraft #199 |
| 106 | Bruce Campbell | redraft #189 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.