Mike Evans
WR, Texas A&M · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #7 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 182 of ~197 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~92%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas A&M: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 25% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 182 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 80 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 10 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 893 rec, 13,472 yds, 111 TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Arm / hand | 35.1" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 4 | Sammy Watkins | redraft #30 |
| 5 | Khalil Mack | redraft #2 |
| 6 | Jake Matthews | redraft #9 |
| 8 | Justin Gilbert | redraft #159 |
| 9 | Anthony Barr | redraft #18 |
| 10 | Eric Ebron | redraft #59 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.