Sammy Watkins
WR, Clemson · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #4 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 64% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~146 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2022 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 111 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 43 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 11 att, 76 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 364 rec, 5,384 yds, 34 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 1 | Jadeveon Clowney | redraft #14 |
| 2 | Greg Robinson | redraft #70 |
| 3 | Blake Bortles | redraft #29 |
| 5 | Khalil Mack | redraft #2 |
| 6 | Jake Matthews | redraft #9 |
| 7 | Mike Evans | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.