Eric Ebron
TE, North Carolina · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #10 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 85% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 106 of ~129 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2021 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 106 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 29 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 5 att, -6 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 351 rec, 3,837 yds, 33 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Arm / hand | 33.2" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#1 TE) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 7 | Mike Evans | redraft #7 |
| 8 | Justin Gilbert | redraft #159 |
| 9 | Anthony Barr | redraft #18 |
| 11 | Taylor Lewan | redraft #24 |
| 12 | Odell Beckham Jr. | redraft #17 |
| 13 | Aaron Donald | redraft #1 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.