Aaron Donald
DT, Pittsburgh · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #13 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#13). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 285 lbs: faster than 87% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 158 of ~197 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~80%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 158 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 10 |
| First-team All-Pro | 8 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 123 |
| Defense | 344 tackles, 111 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 285 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 35 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 7.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#1 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 10 | Eric Ebron | redraft #59 |
| 11 | Taylor Lewan | redraft #24 |
| 12 | Odell Beckham Jr. | redraft #17 |
| 14 | Kyle Fuller | redraft #25 |
| 15 | Ryan Shazier | redraft #61 |
| 16 | Zack Martin | redraft #3 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.