Ryan Shazier
LB, Ohio St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #15 (PIT)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 237 lbs: faster than 74% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2017 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 46 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Defense | 202 tackles, 7 sacks, 7 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 237 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 42" |
| Broad jump | 130" |
| 3-cone | 6.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.3" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#2 LB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 12 | Odell Beckham Jr. | redraft #17 |
| 13 | Aaron Donald | redraft #1 |
| 14 | Kyle Fuller | redraft #25 |
| 16 | Zack Martin | redraft #3 |
| 17 | C.J. Mosley | redraft #6 |
| 18 | Calvin Pryor | redraft #101 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.