Michael Turner
RB, Northern Illinois · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #154 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 134 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2012 (~93%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #142 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#154). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northern Illinois: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 237 lbs: faster than 62% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 134 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 55 |
| Rushing | 1639 att, 7,338 yds, 66 TD |
| Receiving | 70 rec, 528 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 237 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.5 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #142 overall (#10 RB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 151 | Mark Wilson | redraft #219 |
| 152 | Jeff Shoate | redraft #201 |
| 153 | Roderick Green | redraft #135 |
| 155 | Rod Davis | redraft #155 |
| 156 | Mike Karney | redraft #162 |
| 157 | D.J. Hackett | redraft #98 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.