Mike Karney
FB, Arizona St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #156 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #184 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#156).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.02 40-yard dash at 254 lbs: faster than 0% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 101 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2010 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 101 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 47 att, 99 yds, 5 TD |
| Receiving | 64 rec, 325 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 254 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.02 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #184 overall (#3 FB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 153 | Roderick Green | redraft #135 |
| 154 | Michael Turner | redraft #21 |
| 155 | Rod Davis | redraft #155 |
| 157 | D.J. Hackett | redraft #98 |
| 158 | Jason Shivers | redraft #224 |
| 159 | Sean Bubin | redraft #231 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.