Jeff Shoate
DB, San Diego St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #152 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #256 (#26 at his position); he went #152, 104 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2007 (~22%). Last NFL season: 2007.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 7% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 3.88 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #256 overall (#26 DB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 149 | Maurice Mann | redraft #223 |
| 150 | Chris Thompson | redraft #195 |
| 151 | Mark Wilson | redraft #219 |
| 153 | Roderick Green | redraft #135 |
| 154 | Michael Turner | redraft #21 |
| 155 | Rod Davis | redraft #155 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.